Predicting Recidivism Risk: New Tool in Philadelphia Shows Great Promise

Tool uses random forest modeling to identify probationers likely to reoffend within two years of returning to the community.

Seven years ago, criminologists from the University of Pennsylvania and officials with Philadelphia's Adult Probation and Parole Department (APPD) teamed up to create a computerized system that predicts — with a high degree of accuracy — which probationers are likely to violently reoffend within two years of returning to the community.