Predictive Policing Forecasting Crime for Law Enforcement

A four page resarch brief compiled by the Rand Corporation PP team: Walter L. Perry, Brian McInnis, Carter C. Price, Susan Smith, John S. Hollywood.

To increase understanding of how predictive policing methods can be used, RAND researchers, with sponsorship from the National Institute of Justice, reviewed the literature on predictive policing tools, compiled case studies of departments that have used techniques that appear promising, and developed a taxonomy of approaches to predictive policing.

Key findings:

• Predictive policing is the application of analytical techniques to identify promising targets for police intervention, with the goal of reducing crime risk or solving past crimes.
• Predictive policing techniques can be used to identify places and times with the highest risk of crime, people at risk of being offenders or victims, and people who most likely committed a past crime.
• To be effective, predictive policing must include interventions based on analytical findings. Successful interventions typically have top-level support, sufficient resources, automated systems to provide needed information, and assigned personnel with both the freedom to resolve crime problems and accountability for doing so.
• Many agencies may find simple heuristics sufficient for their predictive policing needs, though larger agencies that collect large amounts of data may benefit from more complex models.