Perry et al (2013). Predictive Policing: The Role of Crime Forecasting in Law Enforcement Operation

Perry, Walter L.; Brian McInnis; Carter C. Price; Susan C. Smith; John S. Hollywood (2013). Predictive Policing: The Role of Crime Forecasting in Law Enforcement Operation; Report RR233, Rand Corporation.

A team of RAND researchers is conducting an evaluation of Predictive Policing methods. The work is being funded by the National Institute of Justice (NIJ) and is comprised of two phases. This report is from Phase I, and focuses on site identification and laying the groundwork for program implementation.

It provides assessments of some of the most promising technical tools for making predictions and tactical approaches for acting on them, drawing on prior research, information from vendors and developers, case studies of predictive policing in practice, and lessons from the use of similar techniques in military operations. It also dispels some myths about predictive methods and explores some pitfalls to avoid in using these tools.

Predictive policing is a topic of much enthusiasm and much concern, particularly with regard to civil liberties and privacy rights. As this guide shows, these tools are not a substitute for integrated approaches to policing, nor are they a crystal ball; the most effective predictive policing approaches are elements of larger proactive strategies that build strong relationships between police departments and their communities to solve crime problems.